WHY is South Australia so underrepresented in the federal Labor Party – and can anything be done about it in this federal election year? Last November, when Simon Crean admitted his position had become untenable and resigned as federal leader of the ALP, just two MPs stood alongside him at his press conference: South Australians Nick Bolkus and Rod Sawford. Their loyalty to their leader was commendable but maybe they should have been following his example.

At the start of Bob Hawke’s third term as Prime Minister, Labor held eight out of 13 SA House of Representatives seats; such locals as Neal Blewett carried national clout in Cabinet; Chris Schacht was a respected tactician.

As John Howard’s third term draws to a close, Labor has just a quarter of SA’s electorates. Only one South Australian, David Cox, is in Mark Latham’s shadow ministry; there are seven locals on Howard’s frontbench – four Cabinet members and three Parliamentary Secretaries.

Latham’s election as Opposition Leader in December gave federal Labor a much-needed boost on the eve of an election year. Six months earlier, Beazley backer Wayne Swan famously warned the party was headed for a “train wreck”. So Labor took a punt and it ended 2003 with a new leader capable of generating a buzz in pubs and lunchrooms as well as the Canberra press gallery. The train wreck may have been averted, though looking at the SA party in the wake of Latham’s first visit to the state as leader last month suggests that local Labor is half off the rails.

While South Australians are seriously under represented in Labor’s top ranks, one party veteran bluntly asks, “what else can they expect when they fail to make a contribution?”.

None of the four Labor Senators can realistically expect to be on the frontbench. Bolkus was a minister until Paul Keating’s defeat, but 24 years after his first election he should think more about retirement than a comeback. Geoff Buckland followed a time-honoured Labor route from the shop floor into Parliament in 2000 but is unlikely to go further. Linda Kirk has a good profile from her work on the Adelaide City Council, in the republic referendum and as an Adelaide University law lecturer, while Penny Wong has built up a strong reputation in the party and the parliament. However, as both were only elected in 2001 they are unlikely to make the frontbench until the second term of any Latham government.

That puts the focus on the House of Representatives, where governments are formed. Matters here have been complicated by an electoral redistribution brought on by SA’s declining population. Only 11 seats will be contested at the next election; previously there were 12.

Cox’s margin in his southern suburbs seat of Kingston has fallen to 1.3 per cent on the new boundaries. Sawford remains safe. It would take a massive swing of more than 16 per cent to lose his electorate of Port Adelaide.

The third Labor member, Martyn Evans, has seen his northern suburbs seat, Bonython, vanish in a merger with the neighbouring Liberal electorate of Wakefield. The new Wakefield, however, has absorbed enough of Bonython to become a 1.5 per cent Labor marginal. Evans should contest it.

Redistributions do not just involve drawing lines on maps. Party branches and the delegates they elect to the bodies that choose candidates need to be reallocated, sending delicate internal power structures into flux.

Sawford has held the state’s safest Labor seat - once the home of party giant Mick Young - since 1988 yet has never sat on the front bench. Port Adelaide is a Left seat in waiting; Mark Butler, the young Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union state secretary, has been tipped as a future member. Even with internal considerations, a party committed to offering voters a change and serious about renewal should have tapped Sawford on the shoulder.

While Labor sources say there has been no real move to replace Evans, they admit he would have been under pressure without a redistribution. His career probably peaked as a state minister more than a decade ago.

The SA ALP is missing opportunities to introduce new talent in two electorates; it may also be starting from behind in the marginals it wants to take from the Liberals. Influential Right members claim State Secretary Ian Hunter damaged their chances of winning back Adelaide and Hindmarsh, in the city’s west, by mishandling the redistribution. Although ABC election analyst Antony Green says the overall outcome was “inevitable”, they believe Hunter could have put a proposal to abolish Hindmarsh and shake the Liberals’ hold on once-safe Labor seats like Adelaide and Makin.

And while the new boundaries were finalised before Christmas, the redistribution is still providing a stumbling block for Labor. Hunter says branches cannot be allocated to electoral divisions and preselections held until the new boundaries are formally tabled by the Government.

Liberal Trish Worth holds Adelaide by just 0.6 per cent. Chris Gallus would lose Hindmarsh with a 1.1 per cent swing. While the preselection process can be carried out relatively swiftly – factional negotiations to give Adelaide to the Right and letting the Left contest Hindmarsh should help – the delay means Labor will not have candidates on the ground, will not have names and faces to put in front of electors in vital seats for a few weeks more. This could cost votes.

An election is not expected until August at the earliest. It is too early to start making predictions based on opinion polls – and September 11 and the Tampa affair showed how unforeseeable events can sway campaigns.

Whatever occurs, Labor needs to win seats in SA. Before Latham became leader, there were real fears that Wakefield and Kingston could go, with talk that Adelaide Crows footballer Nigel Smart would run against Cox. Now, unless the Latham experiment goes badly wrong, Labor should at least hold the line. Smart is not contesting Kingston, and there is no standout among the Liberal hopefuls for Wakefield.

Latham needs eight seats to become Prime Minister. Adelaide, Hindmarsh and Makin should all be possibilities. Antony Green says, “If Labor is going to win narrowly, it needs to win these seats”. However, no high-profile Labor standard-bearers or candidates with the grit and skill needed to take and hold these marginals have yet appeared.

The new Labor dawn could break dull for the party in South Australia.